Welcome!

Log Management Authors: Dana Gardner, Pat Romanski, Elizabeth White, David H Deans, Carmen Gonzalez

Related Topics: Agile Computing

Agile Computing: Blog Feed Post

Is Facebook at the Peak of Its Hype?

Is it the tip of the iceberg or top of Mt Everest

The record of Facebook so far is impressive … in fact it is unprecedented. Facebook with $40 billion valuation & 500 million users – Mark Elliot Zuckerberg, the youngest billionaire & Time “person of the year” … the list goes on. So, where does Facebook go from here? Are we looking at the tip of the iceberg or are we standing at the top of Mt Everest?

Here is a 2007 May Fast Company article – Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg: Hacker. Dropout. CEO. It makes interesting reading. The article goes on to says “…TechCrunch posted documents said to be a part of an internal valuation of Facebook by Yahoo. The documents projected that Facebook would generate $969 million in revenue, with 48 million users, by 2010…”. They have been wrong by an order of magnitude on the number of users!!!

Going forward, here are five possible scenarios for Facebook.

  1. Next big thing happens: A new and innovative entertainment channel opens up and becomes very popular. Though Facebook continues to enjoy a huge user base, total time spend by users on Facebook saturates and starts declining.
  2. Remains a social networking site: Their user base grows to about 1 billion and also gets a fair share of advertisement revenue. It remains, by far, the largest social networking sites but fails to expand beyond that. People continue to spend time on Facebook to socialize and play games but not for anything else.
  3. Encroaches into others territory: It builds up a loyal user base that uses Facebook of almost everything. It encroaches into the territory of Craigslist, eBay, Amazon, YouTube … and creates its niche. Significant portion of SMB completely depend of Facebook of all customer interactions.
  4. Seriously threatens Google and others: Proves that knowing people is vastly superior to understanding web sites. Business of all sizes starts to flock around Facebook for advertisement, sales and customer relation management. All internet segments are affected. Google sees a significant decline in ad revenue.
  5. Achieves complete dominance of the web: Facebook impacts every facet of our life and becomes synonymous to web. Majority of our web interaction happens through or with the aid of Facebook.

Can Facebook really reach level 3 and move beyond?
Here are some of the challenges that need to be dealt with.

  • Currently, Facebook does not recognizes the nuances in relationship (see this great slide show by Paul Adams who is slated to join Facebook from Google) – question is can this nuance be introduced without sacrificing the simplicity of interface?
  • Facebook is blocked in most large enterprises – and wining over enterprises is always a big challenge – Google is learning it the hard way. Even in SMB survey indicates that half of them don’t allow access to Facebook.
  • So far Mark Zuckerberg has unilaterally defined the rules of the game. Not the best way to take the rest of the world on – it requires alliance – it requires collective thinking. Tim Berners-Lee, the creator of the web standard has called Facebook a Walled Garden in Scientific America (here is the original article)
  • Knowing people and behavior is important but not everything. The importance of data – information – knowledge cannot be ignored and today in the area Facebook depends totally on Microsoft. Here is an interesting analysis – What Social Signals Do Google & Bing Really Count?
  • Privacy concerns – monopoly concerns – government concerns … these are real concerns and more voices will be raised as and when Facebook spreads its tentacle. This post (Facebook’s Anti-Privacy Monopoly) summarizes the current concerns of people.

Finally, here are some thoughts on where social web is going:

More Stories By Udayan Banerjee

Udayan Banerjee is CTO at NIIT Technologies Ltd, an IT industry veteran with more than 30 years' experience. He blogs at http://setandbma.wordpress.com.
The blog focuses on emerging technologies like cloud computing, mobile computing, social media aka web 2.0 etc. It also contains stuff about agile methodology and trends in architecture. It is a world view seen through the lens of a software service provider based out of Bangalore and serving clients across the world. The focus is mostly on...

  • Keep the hype out and project a realistic picture
  • Uncover trends not very apparent
  • Draw conclusion from real life experience
  • Point out fallacy & discrepancy when I see them
  • Talk about trends which I find interesting
Google

IoT & Smart Cities Stories
The Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) is a non-profit organization that provides business support services to companies expanding to Japan. With the support of JETRO's dedicated staff, clients can incorporate their business; receive visa, immigration, and HR support; find dedicated office space; identify local government subsidies; get tailored market studies; and more.
As you know, enterprise IT conversation over the past year have often centered upon the open-source Kubernetes container orchestration system. In fact, Kubernetes has emerged as the key technology -- and even primary platform -- of cloud migrations for a wide variety of organizations. Kubernetes is critical to forward-looking enterprises that continue to push their IT infrastructures toward maximum functionality, scalability, and flexibility. As they do so, IT professionals are also embr...
At CloudEXPO Silicon Valley, June 24-26, 2019, Digital Transformation (DX) is a major focus with expanded DevOpsSUMMIT and FinTechEXPO programs within the DXWorldEXPO agenda. Successful transformation requires a laser focus on being data-driven and on using all the tools available that enable transformation if they plan to survive over the long term. A total of 88% of Fortune 500 companies from a generation ago are now out of business. Only 12% still survive. Similar percentages are found throug...
At CloudEXPO Silicon Valley, June 24-26, 2019, Digital Transformation (DX) is a major focus with expanded DevOpsSUMMIT and FinTechEXPO programs within the DXWorldEXPO agenda. Successful transformation requires a laser focus on being data-driven and on using all the tools available that enable transformation if they plan to survive over the long term. A total of 88% of Fortune 500 companies from a generation ago are now out of business. Only 12% still survive. Similar percentages are found throug...
Atmosera delivers modern cloud services that maximize the advantages of cloud-based infrastructures. Offering private, hybrid, and public cloud solutions, Atmosera works closely with customers to engineer, deploy, and operate cloud architectures with advanced services that deliver strategic business outcomes. Atmosera's expertise simplifies the process of cloud transformation and our 20+ years of experience managing complex IT environments provides our customers with the confidence and trust tha...
AI and machine learning disruption for Enterprises started happening in the areas such as IT operations management (ITOPs) and Cloud management and SaaS apps. In 2019 CIOs will see disruptive solutions for Cloud & Devops, AI/ML driven IT Ops and Cloud Ops. Customers want AI-driven multi-cloud operations for monitoring, detection, prevention of disruptions. Disruptions cause revenue loss, unhappy users, impacts brand reputation etc.
As you know, enterprise IT conversation over the past year have often centered upon the open-source Kubernetes container orchestration system. In fact, Kubernetes has emerged as the key technology -- and even primary platform -- of cloud migrations for a wide variety of organizations. Kubernetes is critical to forward-looking enterprises that continue to push their IT infrastructures toward maximum functionality, scalability, and flexibility.
Today's workforce is trading their cubicles and corporate desktops in favor of an any-location, any-device work style. And as digital natives make up more and more of the modern workforce, the appetite for user-friendly, cloud-based services grows. The center of work is shifting to the user and to the cloud. But managing a proliferation of SaaS, web, and mobile apps running on any number of clouds and devices is unwieldy and increases security risks. Steve Wilson, Citrix Vice President of Cloud,...
When Enterprises started adopting Hadoop-based Big Data environments over the last ten years, they were mainly on-premise deployments. Organizations would spin up and manage large Hadoop clusters, where they would funnel exabytes or petabytes of unstructured data.However, over the last few years the economics of maintaining this enormous infrastructure compared with the elastic scalability of viable cloud options has changed this equation. The growth of cloud storage, cloud-managed big data e...
Artificial intelligence, machine learning, neural networks. We're in the midst of a wave of excitement around AI such as hasn't been seen for a few decades. But those previous periods of inflated expectations led to troughs of disappointment. This time is (mostly) different. Applications of AI such as predictive analytics are already decreasing costs and improving reliability of industrial machinery. Pattern recognition can equal or exceed the ability of human experts in some domains. It's devel...